Friends, I live and learn.
When I wrote previously about my radiator replacement therapy, I mentioned briefly the Vaillant control system with its mysteriously numbered control curves and arcanely inarticulate descriptions.
Afterwards, several people contacted me on Twitter, Mastodon and in the comments and suggested I had read the manual incorrectly. And I realised – not for the first time – that I had been an idiot. And I further realised that an issue raised by a correspondent about radiator de-rating was central to my misunderstanding of this issue.
This is a rather technical article: sorry. But please allow me to explain.
The Vaillant Heat Curve Diagram
In the Vaillant manual there is an arcane diagram which is designed to help users set up their weather compensation. It looks like this:

Click on image for a larger version. This is the Weather Compensation diagram from the Vaillant Manual.
- The vertical axis is the flow temperature of the water in the radiators (°C)
- The horizontal axis shows the outside temperature (°C). This is plotted in reverse i.e. bigger numbers are to the left.
- Both axes meet at 20 °C i.e. when the outside temperature is 20 °C and the flow temperature of water in the radiators is 20 °C. Unsurprisingly, this diagram is only correct if you want your home to be at… 20 °C!
- The various curves show different ways in which the control system will adjust the flow temperature of water flowing through radiators as the outside temperature falls.
- Each curve is labelled with an apparently arbitrary number between 0.1 and 4.0.
The first thing we need to understand is why the diagram above looks like it does, and in particular, why the curves are curved, and not straight lines. This will take the whole of the rest of this article! I’ll talk about adjustments in a follow up.
How Radiators Work
I have written about how radiators work before, but I didn’t do a very good job. I concluded that for many purposes, one can assume that the heating power (watts) of a radiator is proportional to the difference between the average temperature of the water in the radiator and the room temperature. However, if one looks in detail, this is really not a very good approximation.
The figure below shows (red line) how the heating power of a typical radiator varies as the flow temperature increases. The calculation assumes that the room is at 20 °C. Also shown (green dotted line) is the assumption of proportionality.

Click on image for a larger version. Graph showing the heating power of a typical radiator versus the temperature of water flowing through the radiator. Also shown as a dotted green line is the heating power if the output were directly proportional to the temperature difference between the flow temperature and room temperature.
Increasing the flow temperature, increases the heat output of the radiator, but the curvature means that increasing the flow temperature by a fixed amount results in different amounts of additional heating depending on what the flow temperature is.

Click on image for a larger version. Graph showing the slope of the curves and lines in the previous graph versus flow temperature. For a real radiator the output power from increasing flow temperature by 1 °C varies from 10 W/°C to over 25 W/°C at high temperature.
For example, at the lowest flow temperatures, increasing the flow temperature by 1 °C results in an additional 10 W of heating power. But at the highest flow temperatures, increasing the flow temperature by 1 °C results in more than 25 W of extra heating power.

Click for a larger image. A typical dual-panel radiator transfers heat from the hot water flowing through it to the room in two quite distinct ways. By direct heating of the air in contact with the metal surfaces, and by radiation from the outer metal surface.
Why is this? It’s because radiators heat a room by two mechanisms: convection and radiation. Over this temperature range, radiation is completely linear i.e. the heating power is directly proportional to the difference between the average temperature of the radiator and the room. But heat transfer by convection is more complex.
One can consider heat transfer by convection in two stages. In the first stage, air immediately next to the radiators metal parts is heated. In the second stage, this air leaves the radiator and heats the room. It is this second stage where the complexity arises:
- The heat transfer rate in the first stage is proportional to the temperature difference between the air and the radiator.
- The heat transfer rate in the second stage depends on the speed of air flow moving past the metal surfaces of the radiator. At low radiator temperatures the air rises only slowly, but as the temperature difference between the radiator surface and room-temperature air increases, so does the speed of the air flow: colloquially there is a chimney effect.
Combined, these lead to low rates of convective heat transfer at low temperature differences, and higher rates of convective heat transfer at higher temperature differences.
So now we understand how radiators work, let’s think about how a control system will use radiators to control the temperature of a dwelling.
How Weather Compensation Works
The rate at which heat that leaks out of a house is proportional to the temperature difference between the inside and the outside. People have investigated this thoroughly and it is substantially correct. Weather Compensation is a control scheme which exploits this proportionality.
Weather Compensation increases heating power in proportion to the temperature difference between the inside and the outside. If adjusted just right, the heating power exactly matches the rate at which heat is lost to the outside, and the temperature stays constant. Notice that this control system works without a conventional internal thermostat.
Analogy. This is to equivalent stabilising the level of water in a bucket without using a level sensor. Imagine having a bucket with a leak in the bottom. As the bucket fills up, the rate at which water leaves the bottom of the bucket increases in proportion to the depth of water in the bucket. If we use a pump to fill the bucket at a rate which just matches the rate at which water leaves, then the water level will stay constant.
Notice that in order for weather compensation to work for a wide range of outside temperatures, it’s important that the heating power is varied in proportion to the temperature difference between the inside and outside of the house. This is where the non-linearity of radiator output that I mentioned at the start of the article becomes important.
The weather compensation schemes in all devices (boilers or heat pumps) works by increasing the flow temperature in radiators when the outside temperature falls. But the weather compensation scheme must account for the non-linear output as the flow temperature changes. To see how it does this, we need to re-plot the first graph in this article – the radiator de-rating graph – and plot it with the axes swapped over.

Click on image for a larger version. This is the same data as plotted in the first graph, but with the axes swapped. This graph shows the flow temperature required to cause a radiator to emit a given heating power.
We see that plotted this way, heating power is on the horizontal axis and flow temperature is on the vertical axis. We can now see the curvature familiar from the Vaillant weather compensation diagram. As I mentioned above, heating power needs to be proportional to the difference between the internal temperature and the external temperature. So we can re-plot the graph above like this:

Click on image for a larger version. This is the same as the previous graph, but the heating power on horizontal axis has been replaced by the outside temperature. Notice that the horizontal axis is plotted in reverse so that zero heating power corresponds to 20 °C.
This is the same data as the previous graph but the horizontal axis has been re-labelled as the “Outside Temperature”. This particular curve describes one particular response of a control system seeking to stabilise internal temperature as the outside temperature falls. But depending on the installation, more or less heating power may be required. Depending on how much more or less heating power is required we can generate a family of curves that a control system could use. We would just need to pick the correct curve.

Click on image for a larger version. This is the same as the previous graph, but with additional heating curves added corresponding different radiator systems.
So I think now one can see the origin of the diagram in the Vaillant manual. The curves are curved because they compensate for the non-linear output power of radiators as the flow temperature is increased. There are a family of curves depending on the thermal properties of the dwelling and the radiator system.
Heat Transfer Coefficients (HTCs)
A heat transfer coefficient (HTC) is a number which occurs in the description many heat transfer situations, and characterises the rate at which heat flows across a boundary due to a temperature difference of 1 °C.
When considering this control problem, there are two important temperature differences, and two important heat transfer coefficients. The first heat transfer coefficient (HTC_ext) describes the way the heat is lost from the inside of a dwelling to the outside. The second heat transfer coefficient (HTC_int) describes the way the heat is transferred from the hot water in the radiators to the inside of the dwelling.

Click on image for a larger version. Illustration of the two important heat transfer processes. Left. HTC_ext describes how much heat flows out of the house when it inside temperature is raised a further 1 °C above the outside temperature. Right. HTC_int describes how much heat flows out of the radiator when the flow temperature is increase by a further 1 °C above the room temperature.
- The external HTC (HTC_ext) describes how much heat leaves a house when its temperature increases by 1 °C above the outside temperature. Insulating a house reduces this number. For my home, the heat loss is about 4,000 W when the external temperature is -5 °C and the internal temperature is 20 °C. So the heat transfer coefficient is 4,000 W/25 °C = 160 W/°C.
- The internal HTC (HTC_int) describes how much heat leaves the radiators when their temperature increases by 1 °C above the internal temperature. Adding more radiators increases this number. For my home, I measured that:
- When the flow temperature was 46 °C the heat transfer coefficient for the new radiator system was ~220 W/°C.
- When the flow temperature was 32 °C the heat transfer coefficient for the new radiator system was ~200 W/°C.
So now we can re-write the labels on the previous graph using HTCs.

Click on image for a larger version. This is the same as the previous graph, but now with additional labels showing how the temperatures on the previous graph are related to heat flows, and the heat transfer coefficients..
We now see that the graph is really a graph of Heating Output versus Heating Demand, and that the curved lines reflect the fact HTC_int varies with flow temperature because of the non-linear physics of convection.
For my home,
- HTC_ext = 160 W/°C. So for every 1 °C that the external temperature falls I need 160 extra watts of heating. This is true at all temperatures.
- HTC_int ~ 200 W/°C at low flow temperatures and 220 W/°C at higher flow temperatures. So to match the heat loss caused by 1 °C fall in external temperatures, I need to increase the flow temperature by different amounts depending on what the flow temperature already is.
- If the flow temperature is around 32 °C, I need to increase the flow temperature by around 160/200 =0.8 °C
- If the flow temperature is around 46 °C, I only need to increase the flow temperature by around 160/220 =0.73 °C
Notice that HTC_ext is dependent only on the fabric of the house but HTC_int depends on the radiator system and the temperature of water flowing through the radiators. One can affect HTC_ext by reducing draughts, and improving household insulation. But to improve HTC_int one must add more radiators, or increase the size of existing radiators, or add fans to existing radiators.
Curve Labels
So one mystery remains. What is the origin of the seemingly arbitrary labelling of the curves. My surmise was that the curve labelling convention is based on the ratio of HTC_ext to HTC_int at some arbitrarily chosen temperature. So for example:
- If (at some arbitrarily chosen temperature) one needs to make the flow temperature 4 °C hotter when the external falls by 1 °C, then the curve is labelled 4.
- Similarly, if (at some arbitrarily chosen temperature) one needs to make the flow temperature only 0.6 °C hotter when the external temperature falls by 1 °C, then the curve is labelled o.6.
So the curve labelled “1” would describe a situation where the flow temperature needed to increase by exactly 1 °C for each additional 1 °C that the external temperature fell.
Now I have obviously checked this – and it doesn’t quite work! So the mystery remains!
Summary
In this article I have been explaining to myself the origin of the curves of the Vaillant temperature control diagram. I say explaining to myself because almost 2,000 words in, I am sure that most humans will no longer be reading this!
Basically the curves reflect the non-linear behaviour of radiators. But I am sceptical that all radiators behave similarly, so these curves are likely conventional only. The control system also ignores the fact that there are other sources of heating in most dwellings (people and electrical items in particular) and so the heating demand is typically zero or negative until the external temperature falls below about 17 °C.
In the next article, I will look at the three modes of room temperature modulation offered by Vaillant, and the how the diagram is affected when the internal temperature is not 20 °C.
If you still want more, check out this article which has much more detail than this one!
Tags: Convection, Radiators
October 16, 2024 at 3:42 pm |
He who would Vaillant be, ‘gainst all disaster.
October 16, 2024 at 3:52 pm |
“He who would Vaillant be, ‘gainst all disaster.”
…Should in faith, and harmony, follow the Master.
There’s no discouragement, to make him relent.
His first avowed intent, to minimise emissions.
Great song!
October 16, 2024 at 5:06 pm |
Hi Michael,
great article, as always. I wish I had this article when I started out looking at heat curves. If it’s any help, I reverse-engineered the heat curve equation here:
https://community.openenergymonitor.org/t/vaillant-arotherm-owners-thread/21891/281?u=andre_k
TFlow = a * (HC * (Tset – Tout))b + Tset
with HC the heat curve parameter, a= 2.55 and b=0.78. Many convection-type radiators have radiator exponents of 1.3, i.e. their power output rises with deltaT^1.3. The inverse of b is 1.28, so that’s likely where this comes from.
October 16, 2024 at 5:09 pm |
Andre,
Thank you for your kind words. I was just about to do that “reversing engineering” for the next article!
It’s fascinating to me how even teh most complicated things eventually make sense!
Best wishes
Michael
October 16, 2024 at 6:44 pm |
A spreadsheet with this solution’s it will help more people to test and spread the knowledge………Reverse Engineering Bills: A Step-by-Step Guide to Saving Money,…..,..Hack Your Heating Bill: Stay Warm and Save Money…….
October 16, 2024 at 6:55 pm |
Good Evening,
I’m afraid I don’t understand your comment.
Best wishes
Michael
October 16, 2024 at 6:46 pm |
Alternatively, have you looked at installing a Homely controller? It measures the performance of your home and heat pump and builds a unique model to optimise the performance of the system. It also includes radiant heating i.e. the sun shining through the windows, which is an additional variable. I installed one on my Midea heat pump and I am super pleased. The radiators are barely warm but the house is at the required temperature. It is a bit boring but once you have installed one of these you never need to worry about this again. I think that this must be the future for heat pumps. UK inventor and founder :-). I gave up on the in built temperature compensation.
October 16, 2024 at 6:59 pm |
Kevin,
Good Evening.
I have heard people speak highly of Homely, but I don’t know how it integrates with a Vaillant heat pump and my house is pretty acceptable. The internal temperature is exceptionally stable right through the winter.
I will bear your recommendation in mind. Thanks
Best wishes
Michael
October 16, 2024 at 8:29 pm |
Good evening Michael,
Thank you for another very interesting read!
One point you made surprised me: that the heat loss to the outside was determined well by the temperature difference between the inside and the outside of the house.
I find that pure weather compensation does not control the internal temperature of my house well. For example, the house is too hot on cool but sunny days. My anecdotal experience is that solar gain plays quite a big part, and perhaps wind chill too. I’ve always been suspicious that ‘temperature compensation’, which is what we really do, is actually a bad proxy for ‘weather compensation’ but I’ve no proper data to back that up.
I have a vision of replacing my external temperature sensor with a wind/solar/temperature sensor one day!
October 16, 2024 at 8:45 pm |
Duncan, Good Evening.
You are quite right of course. An ideal system would compensate for weather rather than just temperature. But nonetheless solar gain and enhanced air changes due to wind are relatively small in most houses. In my home over winter last year there were slight dips in temperature (less than 1 °C) on some days, but for he most part the temperature was extremely stable.
I am working on Part 2 of this article and there options to (a) modify the weather compensation if the internal temperature sensor is cold and (b) switch off heating if the temperature rises more than a certain amount above the set point.
So much to write about!
Best wishes
Michael
October 16, 2024 at 8:37 pm |
The curve-fitting as above with an exponent of 0.78 would certainly be consistent with a radiator law of dT^1.3 or thereabouts.
I would be interested to know if the 2.55 multiplier has any physical significance. Maybe it is an arbitrary factor to make Vaillant HPs sound good? But the Viessman curves are suspiciously similar.
Certainly the earliest (Danfoss) WC controller I installed >20 years ago had a gradient more in the region of 3.0 for a typical boiler/radiator installation. However the default setting for the Vaillant SensoComfort controller with a boiler is only 1.2 which (neatly) is 1/2.5 times as much.
With an HP you need bigger emitters so it is not surprising the default setting for an HP is 0.6, see https://simulator.vaillant.com/vrc720/at/#/simulator.
October 16, 2024 at 9:37 pm |
Good Evening,
Yes! It would be good develop a first principles theory of these curves, which I probably could do if I felt like it. Or rather, I once could have done when back in my prime! Then we would perhaps understand the labelling of the curves as well the arbitrary factor 2.55.
I did look at the heat curves for a Veissman Boiler (https://forum.buildhub.org.uk/topic/40659-my-viessman-boiler-journey/page/2/#comment-580125) and they were very similar to the Vaillant curves.
Anyway, I am working on Part 2 now: hopefully some further suggests of understanding will emerge as I write.
Best wishes
Michael
October 16, 2024 at 9:39 pm |
Hi Michael,
Very interesting review of the Vaillant (et al) Mumbo-Jumbo of “heat curves”. Thank you.
I continue to enjoy your back-to-basics analysis of building heating and building physics.
I was told by Viessmann some time ago that the curves were due to the non-linearity of building heat loss. Did you get a chance to review this? My own assumption was that the manufacturers had undertaken detailed studies to determine the relationship, and with no further feedback, assumed that it must be down to the complexity of moisture in the building fabric. Your thoughts?
One final question. You have identified thermal comfort of building occupants to be key (the biggest variable), and the basic physics that COP is inversely proportional to the temperature difference between heat source and heat sink. On this basis why did you not consider over floor hydronic heating emitters such as those manufactured by Wundatrade in Wales for your retrofit?
The Romans (according to Vitruvius, although likely to have been the ancient Greeks) understood this when they installed their hypocaust heating systems. The replica Roman Villa at the Newt in Somerset apparently uses very few logs to maintain temperature once the building is up to temperature. If you have any thoughts on any of this, it would be good to hear from you again, and please keep up with the great work on basic applied physics!
Best Regards
Ken Gordon
Aberdeenshire
October 16, 2024 at 9:53 pm |
Ken, Good Evening. You caught me just as I was about to go to bed!
First of all, thank you for your kind words. I appreciate you taking the time to say them.
Secondly, regarding the curvature, it’s not the non-linearity of the building heat loss, but the non-linearity of the heat transfer from the radiators. In a given situation, the heat loss is just proportional to the difference between the inside and outside temperatures.
However, as another correspondent pointed out, if it is windy, this can enhance heat loss at a given temperature difference, and solar gain can reduce heat loss at a given temperature difference. So the system should more properly be called temperature compensation rather than weather compensation. But in the article I am writing now I explain how the system adapts to these effects. The engineers were not stupid!
Regarding underfloor heating, it requires the devastation of the entire floor of a home. I love my heat pump, but I want to remain a married man. Even the radiator replacements were carried out while my wife was away! So underfloor heating is great and if I were starting from scratch I would consider it strongly. But it just wasn’t an option in this house.
Best wishes
Michael
October 19, 2024 at 1:23 pm |
Another fab exploration and explanation, though I wish you’d chosen “HTC_rad” rather than “int” 😄
Your building of WC curves step-by-step was fascinating. I knew the basic principles but not why they curve. Although iirc Daikin “curves” are straight lines! You set the “leaving water temperature” desired at a low outside temperature and another LWT at a high OT and the controller draws a straight line between the two. Maybe it is curved but just not shown on the controller…
What I find astonishing is that heat pump controllers (with one exception) don’t “learn” what curve to use. The installation instructions often expect installers to return periodically, discuss with the occupants how comfortable they are, and adjust the settings. Ridiculous! A controller should be able to work out the required curves from outside temperature, inside temperature, leaving water and incoming water temperatures, and flow rate.
The only exception I’m aware of is the “auto-adapt” setting on Mitsubishi Ecodans.
October 19, 2024 at 1:33 pm |
Dan,
Yes, one would think that after operating for a week or two a system would “learn” the response of the dwelling and “autotune” a heat curve.
However just as I finished writing the articles, I see that Vaillant have *today* introduced a whole new heat curve specification technology = it allows adjustment of the slope of the heat curve directly in units of (°C flow) per (°C outside temperature). I’ll investigate a little further.
Best wishes
Michael
October 23, 2024 at 6:57 am |
Some years ago I was working for an old retired commercial controls engineer. While discussing whether compensation he captivari to weather compensation ratios. I asked him what it was he meant by this. He explained that on the very early weather compensation systems it was exactly as you have described in the article; a ratio between temperature change external and flow of temperature. 1.4 which tends to be the most common occurring ratio required when retro fitting a boiler gives one point four degrees the temperature rise to the radiator system for each one degree the temperature external e-drops. Coincidentally in the south of England where we designed to minus 2 the curve of 1.4 leads to a design of almost exactly 50 30. Within internal to external delta t of 22 and a design room temperature of 20 by simply multiplying 22 / 1.4 and adding the target room temperature we come to a design day flow temperature of 50.8c. this is my experience from installing Viessmann 200s with weather compensation. The Delta t at design day is usually close to 20 degrees that’s almost never exactly. In my own home I get Delta t19. So my existing radiators sized with a mears calculator in 1999 run with a mean water temperature of close to 40 degrees centigrade and are perfectly sized for 50/30 design. Talking to other installers of the v200 this is a common curve used on retrofitting across the country. If this is true most radiators in most properties are heat pump ready and this could be proved before installing a heat pump from the data available from the v200 control. Also as you referred to the linear arrangement around heat loss from a property on any day with stable temperature we can read off the heat output from the boiler and get a fairly accurate heat loss measured by the boiler. Soon we now have proof of radiator suitability and proof of measured heat loss. The advantage of this is that the heat loss calculation for my own property is 15 kilowatts but the measured heat loss is 6 kilowatts. This would allow a fast cooler and more accurately sized heat pump to be installed and also we have pre-knowledged that no radiators require changing. The system is run on micro bore and we also know that each radiator pipe is suitably sized to accept a heat pump. I will be very interested to follow your series of articles as I find the Vailant controller extremely complicated and confusing in comparison to the controller fitted on Viessmann products.
This style of article is exceptionally useful for those of us that have a deep desire to understand the full principles of the science behind heating. Thank you for taking the time to create this article and help to spread the knowledge.
January 13, 2025 at 9:05 pm |
i did read your article through to the end since I am interested in the subject. There are many variables when you look into heat transfer, most are too complex to describe. Your description of the weather compensation curve shape is good enough for most of us, I would struggle to put it into words. I look forward to your next installment.
January 13, 2025 at 9:22 pm |
William, good evening.
I wrote 4 articles, links below. Article 3 is very technical and article 4 might make sense if you use the App to control a heat pump
Best wishes
Michael
January 14, 2025 at 10:31 am
Thank you for your reply, Michael. Your observations are excellent and back up much of what I already know having been involved with heat pumps for about 20 years. Back in 2006 when the Clear Skys grant scheme was introduced there were few manufacturers around and their controls were primitive. At that time Viessman stood out due to the build quality but mainly for their controls which included weather compensation similar to the vaillant you are describing. My first encounter with weather compensation was with an Italian water chiller I applied to a plastic vacuum-forming machine. It wasn’t necessary in that application but the chiller could also be used for space cooling. That was around 1990. I heard that Honeywell had a WC heating control system in the 1950s or earlier. Weather or, as you point out, outside temperature compensation should be the default method of control along with room influence, but most installers have no understanding and, therefore, revert back to fixed flow temperature and a thermostat. When plotting the shape of the curve one has to consider the thermal mass of a building as this affects the time relationship between indoor and outdoor temperatures. I worked with alpha innotec for 5 years; their controller allows changes to the curve to compensate for this, the problem is that most people, users and engineers included, don’t understand it and overcompensate.
I have designed many Arotherm systems for installers since the Plus was introduced and believe they are one of the best controllers on the market at this time but have not had the opportunity to “play” with the app since it was an uphill struggle to get any of the installers to supply and fit the gateway for their customers. It has been a frustrating journey and I am now happy to be retired though feeling slightly unfulfilled. Reading your blogs makes me feel better.
Many thanks for putting into words what I have understood for years.
Just one point; heat pumps reach their full output very quickly, the flow temperature rises slowly because it is fixed by the return temperature which should always be 5K behind. A gas boiler will push the flow temperature up to set point quickly while the return temperature lags behind by as much as 40K due to the excess capacity, this is how it delivers 30kW. Output is a function of temperature difference.
Best regards, Bill
January 14, 2025 at 11:18 am
Bill Johnson,
Good Morning. And thank you for your comment. Temperature control in general is actually a really interesting engineering topic in itself. At one time, I thought that PID control was the last word, but a career of using PID control and a retirement of dealing with heat pumps has been enlightening. And making complex control systems work in a domestic environment is a challenge.
And as usual when writing, one does not “say what one thinks” but rather one “discovers what one thinks” by writing it down.
Regarding outside temperature compensation, I have been carrying out detailed monitoring during teh first 12 days of January, which has had some interestingly cold weather. I’m writing the article now, but the relevant thing I think I have notice regards the weather compensation curves. For the autumn, a curve of 0.4 worked well, but in the cold weather, I found the internal temperature drifted downwards, and I needed to correct the curve significantly to 0.55 to maintain room temperature. I think this was because of the occurrence of de-frost cycles. I *think* that these alter the heat output for a given flow temperature. I am not sure this is correct, but that is my current speculation.
In any case: best wishes: keep warm!
M