COVID 19: Wave#3:12,000 deaths

Friends, I last wrote about the pandemic death toll a couple of weeks ago on October 14th (link). At that point the COVID third wave had killed around 10,00 people.

Since then, the disease has continued to kill just over 100 people per day. And as the death toll ticks over the 12,000 mark, it’s probably a good time to look and ask again: what is happening?

Click the image for a larger versions. Logarithmic graph showing positive caseshospital admissions and deaths since the start of the pandemic. The bold horizontal dotted lines are to help reference the situation 1 year ago. The blue arrows show the dates of recent ‘opening’ events. The green dotted line shows an extrapolation from the first week of June. The blue dotted line shows an extrapolation of trends, doubling every 41 days. Also highlighted in purple are the Euro finals, and the dates of returns to school and university in 2020 and 2021.

However I find it difficult to write about this topic at the moment. The UK seems living out a form of collective cognitive dissonance, with the scale of infection and death very high from a global perspective. And yet there is widespread behaviour as if it were all over.

Anyway. Let’s see how things are going.

Compared with a year ago…

There are currently:

  • Almost 40,000 cases per day (x 2 compared with ~ 20,000 per day at this time last year).
  • Around 1000 admissions per day (roughly the same as this time last year).
  • Just over 100 deaths per day (roughly the same as this time last year)

So nominally everything continues to be the same or worse than this time last year! But the dynamics – the way viral prevalence is changing – is different.

Last year the epidemic was in a phase of exponential growth, doubling every 11 days or so.

This year, things are more-or-less stable. There are periods of 2 to 3 weeks where the epidemic grows exponentially, but at a relatively slow rate. But these growth periods, while concerning, are not sustained.

The viral prevalence has been over 1% for roughly 10 weeks. But there is substantial acquired immunity amongst the unvaccinated (younger) population from having caught COVID, and amongst the vaccinated (older) population, from vaccines. However, this immunity is not perfect.

So what is happening?

As I mentioned, I have been struggling to summarise the COVID situation in the UK.

But on Monday morning I received a précis from New York Times who – although I never write to them – kindly write me a daily newsletter.

Click on image for larger version. Excerpt from the New York Times newsletter today.

In the UK we are months into the ‘living with COVID‘ post-pandemic world.

Of course ‘living with COVID’ actually involves around 3,000 people each month dying with COVID.

And merely designating this era ‘post-pandemic’, does not actually make it so.

In my last article I wrote:

My guess is that if the death rate and hospitalisation rates remain similar to current rates, then ‘people’ will accept almost any level of infection rates. – no matter what the eventual harm from Long COVID, or the risk of generating further variants.

As we stare into the coming winter, I find it very hard to see how the epidemic will evolve; how the government will respond or how people will respond.

I just hope that the winter will be kind to us all.

One Response to “COVID 19: Wave#3:12,000 deaths”

  1. thecovidpilot Says:

    If the authorities wanted to prevent deaths, they would have fought back against the smearing of repurposed antivirals by pharma. But they didn’t. Hence, we must conclude that the authorities don’t care about preventing deaths. Maybe it’s to save pensions.

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