Covid-19: Quick Update

Click for a larger version. The number of positive CV cases per day shown a daily data (dots) and as a 7-day retrospective average. The data re plotted on a logarithmic axis. Presented in this way, exponential trends appear as straight lines. The rates of decline are highlighted and extrapolated by dotted lines. It is clear that the rate of decline of cases has changed – it is now halving every 16 days  – much faster than the initial rate of halving every 21 days, and faster than it did after Lockdown#1.

As I have mentioned before (1, 2) the daily rate of positive cases is falling faster than it did after previous lockdowns.

As you can see on the graph above, the halving-time for cases is now 16 days rather than roughly 21 days after the first lockdown.

The difference has been sustained for 4 weeks which is long enough to arise from something other than chance.

I cannot tell if it arises from the vaccination programme, but if the trend continues…

  • …we will reach 1000 cases per day in mid-April rather than mid-May

This is significant. 1000 cases per day is probably the maximum rate that our embarrassing Test, Trace and Isolate system might be expected to cope with.

So – good news! But I wish I knew why!

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