COVID-19: Day 121: Reasons to be cheerful. One, Two, Three.

Warning: Discussing death is difficult, and if you feel you will be offended by this discussion, please don’t read any further.
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Today – May 1st – is Day 121 of 2020 and I greet this day with a lightness of spirit I have not experienced for many years.

Why do I feel so good? Because yesterday I left NPL! That’s the first reason to be cheerful!

I’ll write more about my disaffection with NPL in due course, but for now let’s take another look at the data on the pandemic. And there we find two more reasons to be cheerful!

Back to the Pandemic

On Day 111 of 2020, the rate at which people were being admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (Pillar 1 test results) was declining, but slowly. A linear fit to the trend indicated that zero admissions would not be reached until roughly day 165 of 2020: 14th June:

Slide5

Re-plotting the same data today, Day 121 of 2020, the same linear fit suggests that zero admissions will be reached around day 145 of 2020: 25th May 2020 – three weeks earlier!

So the decline in the rate of cases is steeper than it initially appeared – that is a second reason to be cheerful!

Slide3

So when should we end the ‘Lock Down’?

Looking at the graph above it might seem that extending the lock-down out to day 145 would be appropriate. But in fact, it could make good sense to begin opening up well in advance of that. Why?

Yesterday (Day 120), 3059 people were Pillar-1 tested with COVID-19 as they entered hospital. These people were infected typically 18 days previously i.e. around day 102.

If the rate of Pillar-1 tested admissions is declining at 700 cases per week now, then this must be because roughly 18 days previously, new infections were declining at the same rate. So we can plot the implied rate of infection.

Slide4

The implication of this analysis is that the rate of new infections across the entire UK is currently close to zero.

If, out of a sense of precaution, we allowed (say) 10 days more, then it seems to me that there would be very little risk in opening things up after, perhaps, day 137 – May 11th.

Except…

I have not included any analysis of care homes and similar care settings in this or any of my earlier blogs. But it seems that a disaster is still unfolding there.

Aside from the disaster of events in care homes in themselves, the presence of ‘hot’ infection sites leaves open the possibility of seeding further cases among residents, carers, and all who come into contact with them.

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Discussing death is difficult, and if you have been offended by this discussion, I apologise. The reason I have written this is that I feel it is important that we all try to understand what is happening.

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