Santa Rosa Fire: Update

The fires surrounding Santa Rosa are slowly coming under control. And – thankfully – rains are due tomorrow (Thursday 19th October).

From the San Francisco Chronicle’s interactive graphic page, I compiled the animated gif above to show how closely the fires approached Santa Rosa from two directions.

Each frame shows one day’s fire extent starting with day 0 – the day before the fires – to  day 11: the 18th October 2017.

What is particularly striking is the rapidity of the spread of the so-called ‘Tubbs Fire’ on Day 2.

It completely outpaced any attempt to contain it, and it devastated the north-eastern suburb of Fountaingrove.

I confess I immediately thought that this extraordinary fire, following an extended drought, had the fingerprints of ‘Climate Change’ written all over it.

And I was sure that Suzanne would feel that way too. But this is not quite the open-and-shut case that I thought.

It turns out that there was a great ‘Hanley’ fire in 1964 that has an uncanny geographical overlap with the the 2017 fires. Several newspapers have featured recollections of the blaze (here and here) and Suzanne sent me the graphic below.

The ‘hatched’ regions correspond to the extent of the 1964 fires, and the coloured dots correspond to the 2017 fires. The overlap is… suspicious. And it rather changes ‘the story’ of the fires.

Santa Rosa Fires 1964-2017

The narrative now appears to be less “OMG! Climate change induced fire-meggedon“, and more “Were the proper planning procedures followed?“. i.e. rather less dramatic, but just as important if it happened to be your house that was burned.

It appears that the fire burned in the same place as it did previously, but in the intervening 53 years, thousands of homes were built.

One irony that Suzanne reports is that a couple of years ago, there was a move to build a fire station in Fountaingrove, but there were objections because it might lower property values in the area.

The fire station was eventually built, but – like everything else there – it has been devastated.

I suspect that when they re-build having a fire station nearby will not be seen with quite the negativity that it once was.

UPDATE: The Washington Post have also run with this story under the headline Santa Rosa ignored nature’s warning . Perhaps after reading my blog?

 

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3 Responses to “Santa Rosa Fire: Update”

  1. H Stiles (@HStiles1) Says:

    I always wondered why in the US domestic buildings are made of wood, especially in hurricane or tornado zones, rather than brick whick I would think is more durable. presumably wood is just cheaper to replace? Would brick buildings have been more resistant to the spread of fire?

  2. protonsforbreakfast Says:

    That’s a good point. Regarding the buildings in general, the main catastrophe that concerns the residents of Santa Rosa is the possibility of a large Earthquake on the nearby San Andreas fault. So wooden buildings with a modicum of ‘flex’ are a good idea.

    Perhaps they will consider that when they re-build.

  3. H Stiles (@HStiles1) Says:

    Also just heard this –
    “The Tubbs fire consumed the collected archives of William Hewlett and David Packard, the tech pioneers who in 1938 formed an electronics company in a Palo Alto garage with $538 in cash.
    More than 100 boxes of the two men’s writings, correspondence, speeches and other items were contained in one of two modular buildings that burned to the ground at the Fountaingrove headquarters of Keysight Technologies. Keysight, the world’s largest electronics measurement company, traces its roots to HP and acquired the archives in 2014 when its business was split from Agilent Technologies — itself an HP spinoff.”

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